The loss of jobs to the advancement of technology is a given. There is no avoiding it. But what is the net effect on our quality of life?
Since the Industrial Revolution, many jobs have been destroyed, yet many more jobs have been created. At first, farming jobs were killed, while higher-paying factory jobs were created in mass. A new expanded middle class was enabled because of the higher-paying factory jobs. Blue-collar workers entered the middle class and became the solid backbone of our economy.
Advancement of transportation and information technologies enabled global trade, which killed many manufacturing jobs in the US. In contrast, those jobs created overseas at a lower cost kept a check on inflation, allowing consumerism to flourish and the service industry to blossom. A whole manufacturing class of workers was eliminated over a few decades.
While the manufacturing sector suffered heavy job losses, a whole new class of entrepreneurs was created due to the advancement of technologies. These entrepreneurs used technologies to develop applications that made businesses and factories more efficient. Other entrepreneurs started consumer applications and products, filling our lives with games, shows, shopping, and travel experiences that could not have been imaginable just a few decades ago. These new businesses created by the new set of entrepreneurs created so much new wealth that has never been seen in human history.
Medical technology advancements made doctors more efficient and medicines more effective, improving the quality of care and saving many lives.
Overall, technological advancement has brought us more benefits than the pain caused by the jobs it has taken away. There is no reason to believe that AI, as it matures, will not bring net new benefits to our society.
As an employee, should I be concerned about AI taking my job? It depends on the kind of job. Here is an example to illustrate the type of jobs that AI will replace.
Many business executives, especially Sales or Marketing executives, would receive a book from their marketing department many years ago, before the Internet and the advancement of Personal computers. The book was a collection of clipped articles from various trade publications and newspapers. It would have articles from competitors announcing their new products, partnerships, contracts signed with large customers, etc. It would include the announcements of new CEOs appointed by competitors or customers. It also would have clipped Xerox copies of relevant industry analysts’ reports. The book would be refreshed every month or so. It was part of the must-read for the executive class of people.
The jobs of creating those books have been long gone. Most who are reading this article could not imagine such jobs existed. But when those jobs existed, the people who had the jobs were considered “knowledge workers.” Sometimes, the senior marketing exec would create the book and present it to the other execs to show off their marketing knowledge.
Did it require marketing knowledge to create the book? Was the job a knowledge worker job? The answers now are NO and NO. But when those jobs existed, they were considered and respected as knowledge workers.
This example is to illustrate the difference between knowledge work versus knowledgeable work.
With AI, much of the knowledge work will be replaced. But AI cannot replace knowledgeable work. Why? Because knowledgeable work constantly changes, adding insights and enabling better and quicker decision-making. It is always about Better, Faster, and Cheaper. If your work directly contributes to making things Better, Faster, and Cheaper, it is not likely that your job will be replaced by AI. Instead, you and your work are taking jobs away from others.
Continuing with the above example, the book was replaced by information feeds. Instead of clipped paper articles once a month, the book became a file on the computer with information feeds from various sources. Instead of once a month, the file was refreshed constantly. But new jobs also have sprung up. The new jobs are business research analysts. These people have the combined knowledge of using computing tools to collect pertinent information, perform data analytics, and draw insights and projections. Their knowledge continuously changes with the markets and their newfound insights. They are knowledgeable. Businesses benefited from their knowledge work. But some of these jobs will be replaced by AI. The part of the jobs that make repeatable data collection, repeatable data analysis, and present projections based on known correlation of data can be done by AI. In other words, the part of the job that requires no new thinking, just like clipping paper articles from the same few sources, will inevitably be replaced — work evolves. With AI, those jobs evolve faster and faster. Knowledgeable workers, if they stop adding new ways to make things Better, Faster, and Cheaper, will be replaced by AI.
Business analysis will require an ever-deepening of knowledge of the customers, their customers, suppliers, the suppliers’ suppliers, other macro dynamics the customers have no control over, etc. Business projections must adapt to real-time information from constantly expanding and changing sources. The AI which may contribute to the business analysis must also be trained and retrained to allow for more up-to-date information with relevancy that would have been deemed impossible just a short while ago. It is the creation of new knowledge that humans can stay ahead of AI. The new knowledge creation cycle may be breakneck as AI continuously catches up on the repeatable work.
In the world of AI, human workers are competing against AI all the time. Many employees will lose their jobs. But many new jobs, knowledgeable work, will need employees simultaneously. Those jobs will pay more. But there will be fewer of those jobs.
On the other hand, AI will create a new breed of entrepreneurs.
Since the 1990s, the exponential growth of computing power enabled many new businesses we interact with today, like FaceBook, Twitter, Amazon, etc. A totally new economy was created in the past twenty years with the arrival of the Internet. AI would do the same. It will create a new economy that we have not seen or experienced. It will not be the Industrial Revolution type of economy. It will be beyond the Knowledge Economy.
We have yet to learn what those AI-enabled businesses and jobs would be. But they will be more technical, less mundane, and require more profound and broader thinking that only humans can do. The new class of workers is beyond knowledge; they are truly value-creators. These workers are not doing tasks; they are free thinkers, led by curiosity, and expansive learning capacity, enabled by AI, to push into impossible or unthinkable areas.
If you believe you are the curious kind, always learning, always experimenting, and bouncing right back from failures while iterating, then you will have no problem keeping your high-paying jobs in the AI world.
At the same time, you may find working for employers less attractive. Instead, you could become an entrepreneur in the AI world. Being an employer in the future AI world is easier because many of your employees will be AI and Robots. They are built-in, non-stop knowledge workers. The cost to start a new business will be a fraction of what it is today. One can create new businesses often and watch them grow and fail quickly.
Why be employed by employers when you can use AI and Robots to be your employees while your innovative ideas continue to be tested and add value to your customers?
Maybe the question of “Will I still have a job” is moot. Because you don't want to have a Job.
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